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Euro area business cycle dating committee

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The early s recession was a decline in economic activity which mainly occurred in developed countries. This recession was predicted by economists, because the boom of the s accompanied by both low inflation and low unemployment slowed in some parts of East Asia during the Asian financial crisis. The recession in industrialized countries was not as significant as either of the two previous worldwide recessions. Some economists in the United States object to characterizing it as a recession since there were no two consecutive quarters of negative growth. After the relatively mild recession ended in early , the country hit a belated unemployment rate peak of 7. Job growth was initially muted by large layoffs among defense related industries.
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Public Policy and the ‘Sustainability’ of Adult Education

Euro area business cycle dating committee
Euro area business cycle dating committee
Euro area business cycle dating committee
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Early 2000s recession

Real M1 growth in the euro area has been moderating in recent quarters, adding to concerns about the economic outlook given the robust relationship between the business cycle and narrow money. This box shows that the leading and pro-cyclical properties of real M1 for real GDP remain a robust stylised fact in the euro area. Moreover, there are indications that these properties reflect the predictive capacity of narrow money, beyond the influence of interest rates. At the current juncture, models exploiting the predictive power of real M1 suggest that the steady decline in real M1 growth from its most recent peak in mid points to very low risks of recession in the euro area up to the beginning of The leading and pro-cyclical properties of real M1 with respect to real GDP in the euro area remain a robust stylised fact.
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This box looks at the euro area services sector and its relationship with manufacturing, focusing particularly on the extent to which the services sector could be affected by the recent slowdown in manufacturing. Economic growth in the euro area has been slower in recent quarters, mainly reflecting the impact on the euro area manufacturing sector of the ongoing weakness in international trade in an environment of prolonged global uncertainties. However, activity levels in the services sector have so far been relatively robust in the face of this downturn in manufacturing. This is likely to stem from the resilient developments in domestic demand, supported by the very accommodative monetary policy stance, which continues to support labour markets and create favourable financing conditions.
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